Category Archives: Portfolio Strategy

SPX Drops >2%; 2014 Surpasses 2013 in Occurences

Today marks the third time this year that the S&P 500 declined by greater than two percent in one day; surpassing the two times that it occurred in 2013. If it wasn’t clear already, the investment framework that was used … Continue reading

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On Average, April is the Third Best Performing Month for Equities

The S&P 500 Index closed out the last day of Q1:2014 with a gain of 14.72 points, or 0.72%; finishing higher on the Month by 0.69% and higher on the Quarter by 1.30%. Obviously, those month-end and quarter-end statistics were … Continue reading

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Notable Economic Releases: 3/31 – 4/4

Tuesday, April 1, 2014: 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Index (March) Thursday, April 3, 2014: 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (March) Friday, April 4, 2014: 08:30 AM ET Employment Situation (March)

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The First Quarter is Coming to a Close

U.S. equity markets initially rallied to start the day, only to fade around midday. The S&P 500 closed higher by 8.57 points, or 0.46%, to end the week at 1857.61. Month-to-date, the index is lower by 0.1% and year-to-date, the … Continue reading

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A Comment on New Home Sales

The Census Bureau released their preliminary data for New Homes Sales today. February 2014 estimates came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 400k, compared with a revised 455k in January; a decline of 3.3% month-over-month and -1.1% year-over-year change. … Continue reading

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A Declining Trend in Retail Sales

Equity markets declined today while Treasuries were bid. The S&P500 declined by 21.85 points, or -1.17%, to settle at 1846.35. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 2.65%. Out this morning was the most important economic release of the week: Retail … Continue reading

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A Note on December Performance

The month of December is an overwhelmingly positive month for US equities.  Take a look at the table below: So it is surprising to see the SPX down 1.31% through the first 8 days of this month.  Below is a … Continue reading

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What to Expect in 2014; A Historical Review

The following chart displays SPX calendar year returns since 1950, in ascending order; 2013 is highlighted. The SPX is a long way from having its best year ever, but 2013 is currently among its top 10.  Barring an FOMC decision … Continue reading

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Lowered Holiday Spending Forecasts – Gallup

Consumer psychology is highly fluid and data dependent, so don’t be confused by the following conflicting responses. U.S. consumers now estimate they will spend $704 on Christmas gifts this season, down from their $786 average prediction in October. Americans’ latest … Continue reading

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U.S. Equity Mutual Fund Flows

  It is hard to find a more real-time quantitative indicator of the retail investor than mutual fund flows.  After five years of very strong US equity market performance, the so-called “mom-and-pop” investors are beginning to view equity investments in … Continue reading

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