Category Archives: Portfolio Strategy

Only The Second Sell Off Of The Year

The US economy is in its 11th quarter of “recovery”; and by all standards, this “recovery” is sub-par.  The reason the economy is in this recovery—rather than 11+ quarters of decline—is due of the combination of 2 factors: ultra-low interest … Continue reading

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SPX Return Since Feb 1: +0.47%

There is very little on the economic calendar over the course of the next two weeks.  Of note are the 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Auctions this week (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively).  The FOMC Minutes will be released next Wednesday, February … Continue reading

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A Study in SPX Price Momentum

The NYSE experienced a low volume session today.  Among the factors responsible for this could be: Chinese New Year (China’s markets are closed all week) NEMO (effects of which still linger) State of the Union Address (Tuesday) VIX expiration (Wednesday) … Continue reading

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Fourth Quarter GDP “Anomalies” Fully Priced In

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Volatility Picks Up

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Equities at a Critical Level: 1330

After much of the day in Oversold territory, the SPX finished yesterday nearly flat.  Internally, the last two days of trading have not looked healthy.  Futures are lower this morning.  Today’s levels:  Overbought at 1359, Oversold at 1339.  The SPX … Continue reading

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Equity Price Action Becoming Less Bullish

Today’s Quantitative levels:  1373 (Overbought) / 1340 (Oversold).  Yesterday’s price action was more foundation building in this mid-1300s (1330 – 1370) range.  The SPX was severely Oversold on a short-term basis intraday and I added equities to certain portfolios. Futures … Continue reading

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The Risk / Reward Ratio is Only Modestly Favorable

Treasuries rallied yesterday, but that was only good for a slight decline in equities.  The SPX closed just below the Oversold level of 1353.  Today’s Oversold level comes in just one point lower at 1352.  Today’s Overbought level is 1373.  … Continue reading

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Equity Futures Are Already Moving Off Their Lows

In case you missed it, Friday finished the day with a serious rally off the lows; a promising sign for the week ahead.  On Thursday, I noted two important things: light volume lends to swift capital market movements and “bad … Continue reading

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Non-Farm Payrolls Below Consensus; Futures Lower

The Oversold level yesterday was 1331; today’s is 1359.  This change has everything to do with the recent strength in equities.  Given where SPX futures are currently trading, it looks as if that 1359 level will be breached on today. … Continue reading

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