Monthly Archives: July 2012

Equities at a Critical Level: 1330

After much of the day in Oversold territory, the SPX finished yesterday nearly flat.  Internally, the last two days of trading have not looked healthy.  Futures are lower this morning.  Today’s levels:  Overbought at 1359, Oversold at 1339.  The SPX … Continue reading

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Equity Price Action Becoming Less Bullish

Today’s Quantitative levels:  1373 (Overbought) / 1340 (Oversold).  Yesterday’s price action was more foundation building in this mid-1300s (1330 – 1370) range.  The SPX was severely Oversold on a short-term basis intraday and I added equities to certain portfolios. Futures … Continue reading

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The Risk / Reward Ratio is Only Modestly Favorable

Treasuries rallied yesterday, but that was only good for a slight decline in equities.  The SPX closed just below the Oversold level of 1353.  Today’s Oversold level comes in just one point lower at 1352.  Today’s Overbought level is 1373.  … Continue reading

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Equity Futures Are Already Moving Off Their Lows

In case you missed it, Friday finished the day with a serious rally off the lows; a promising sign for the week ahead.  On Thursday, I noted two important things: light volume lends to swift capital market movements and “bad … Continue reading

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Non-Farm Payrolls Below Consensus; Futures Lower

The Oversold level yesterday was 1331; today’s is 1359.  This change has everything to do with the recent strength in equities.  Given where SPX futures are currently trading, it looks as if that 1359 level will be breached on today. … Continue reading

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Light Volume Suggests Positioning Cautiously

Welcome back to the holiday-shortened-extremely-light-volume-week.  Equities quietly moved higher on Monday and Tuesday and this morning’s futures are fluctuating rapidly between positive and negative territory.  ADP Employment data and Initial Jobless Claims were both reported stronger than expected.  Concern still … Continue reading

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Third Quarter Commentary, Part I

I continue to be surprised by how attracted clients are to a 60% / 40% asset allocation, or some variation thereof.  That is a static process which assumes asset risk is constant over time.  The concepts within Modern Portfolio Theory—from … Continue reading

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Equities Awaiting Friday’s Unemployment Numbers

Today’s levels:  Overbought at 1364 / Oversold at 1316.  Expect this holiday week to be light on volume.  As always, with light volume, large price moves can happen rather quickly.  Employment Situation Report will be released on Friday; the last … Continue reading

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