Past Performance Does Predict Future Performance

Market predictions can be made for several reasons:  industry fundamentals, technical analysis, etc.  However, the most influential factor in market predictions is past performance.  The psychological mindset of the investor dominates the assessment of the future.

Consider the following research.

This is obviously an unintended and unwanted circumstance.  Successful long-term investing requires the elimination, or significant reduction, of this behavioral risk.  Predictions are not inherently bad.  But it is less about the prediction itself and more about the hypothesis that created it.

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