Futures are Near Overbought Levels

Overbought:  1297
Oversold:  1260

Today’s Overbought level comes in 12 handles higher than yesterday’s close.  Futures were trading as high as 15 points above fair value, but came off slightly after the ECB decided to leave rates unchanged; it appears as if the SPX will hit the Overbought level near the open.  The high probability trade over the last month has been to fade the rallies.  At some point, those rallies will stick and the Overbought levels will be challenged.  Treasury rates are rising–which is a sign that the equity complex can sustainably trade higher–but the 10 Year note is still under 1.70%, limiting the potential of an equity rally.

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