Extreme Uncertainty in Equities

Over the course of the last eight trading days, the intraday range on the S&P 500 was greater than 1% on seven occasions; with the exception being a 0.95% range on April 8th. This volatile period started back on Friday, April 4th after the Employment Situation reports were published–this date also coincides with the all-time intraday high S&P 500 print of 1897.28. At one point, the index traded down by as much as 4.37% from that high. Currently, the S&P 500 index is 2.86% off its peak and lower by 0.29% on the year.

SPX

Previously on this blog, I’ve mentioned several price factors to consider during the month of April. To recap, April is the third best performing month for U.S. equities–specifically the S&P 500 index–since 1950; with an average return of 1.50%. At the time of its peak at 1897.28, the index was higher by 1.33% on the month.

I also suggested that lower prices were needed on equities in order to find a fresh round of buyers willing to step in. Perhaps the necessary lower prices were found in the 1814-1816 range during each of the last three days, but there is anything but certainty at this time. As equities continue to plateau, we added to our equity position in our tactical portfolios at an effective S&P 500 equivalent of 1824.

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